27/10/2004

Global hubs for epidemics

German researchers have developed a very interesting and potentially vital mathematical model (involving 95% of civil aviation connections and a set of stochastic differential equations - here we go again!) for the global proliferation of epidemics via civil aviation. Its counter-intuitive proposal for containment is not cutting the lines from the area of the outbreak, but rather shutting down the busiest hubs worldwide! Isolating just 2% of the biggest hubs is enough to drastically contain global infection. But then again, if you've ever spent a bit of time in one of the big hubs' lounges, then it becomes quite intuitive ... here's the article, and here's another reference to their work - both in German.

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